Research Abstract

The Impact of Group Transcendental Meditation Practice on Quality of Life in the U.S.: A Quasi-Experimental Study of the Scientific Demonstration Project

Kenneth L. Cavanaugh, Ph.D., Maxwell Rainforth, Ph.D., Rachel Goodman, Ph.D., David Goodman, Ph.D., Ted Hirsch, MBA

This abstract summarizes the initial results of a long-term Scientific Demonstration Project designed to monitor the effects of group practice of advanced Transcendental Meditation techniques on indicators of economic performance and on a broad range of measures of societal quality of life in the United States.

The initial empirical evaluation of the Project focused on economic impacts during the first 100 days, as measured by major stock market indices. On the basis of published prior research evaluating similar projects, significant gains in major stock market indices were anticipated. As predicted prior to the onset of the experiment, the Project has produced a strong and generally unexpected upsurge in the economic fortunes of the country as measured by the behavior of the major stock market indices. Over the first 14 weeks of the Project, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 posted total gains of approximately 12%, with the Dow repeatedly hitting all-time record levels and the S&P 500 reaching a 5.5-year high. During this same period, the NASDAQ Composite Index rose 17.8% and the Domini 400 Social Index of socially responsible stocks rose 13.7%. This behavior of the indices is in marked contrast with the period prior to the beginning of the Project, when the Dow was decreasing on average slightly less than 0.02% percent per week from January 3, 2000, through the week prior to the start of the Project (the week ending July 21, 2006). For the same period, the S&P 500 Index was decreasing at an average weekly rate of more than 0.04% per week, and the NASDAQ was decreasing at an average weekly rate of 0.19%. The Domini 400 was decreasing at an average weekly rate of 0.016% from its inception on May 23, 2001, through the start of the Project. However, immediately following the beginning of the Project on July 23, 2006, there was a statistically significant change in the direction of all four indices. The indices shifted suddenly to a strong positive average rate of increase, approximately 0.8% percent per week for the Dow and S&P 500, 1.36% per week for the NASDAQ, and 0.93% for the Domini 400. Econometric time-series analysis examining the impact of the Project on all four indices indicates that these changes in growth rates are highly statistically significant. The analysis indicated that the probability of observing a change this large in the rate of growth purely by chance is less than 3 in 100,000 for the S&P 500 (p = 0.000026), less than 6 in 100,000 for the Dow (p = 0.000058), and approximately 2 in 1,000,000 for both the NASDAQ (p = 0.0000023) and the Domini 400 (p = 0.0000019).

Future research will monitor the impact of the Project on a comprehensive 26-point  “Quality of Life Invincibility Index,” which includes a broad range of economic, social, health, environmental, and governmental performance indicators.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 11.9% During the First 100 Days of the Scientific Demonstration Project The Dow was decreasing on average slightly less than 0.02% percent per week from January 3, 2000, through the week prior to the start of the Project. However, immediately following the beginning of the Project on July 23, 2006, there was a statistically significant shift to a positive average growth rate of approximately 0.8% per week for the Dow. The analysis indicated that the probability of observing a change this large in the Dow’s rate of growth purely by chance is less than 6 in 100,000 (p = 0.000058).

The S&P 500 Index rose 12.0% During the First 100 Days of the Scientific Demonstration Project The S&P 500 was decreasing on average slightly less than 0.04% percent per week from January 3, 2000, through the week prior to the start of the Project. However, immediately following the beginning of the Project on July 23, 2006, there was a statistically significant shift to a positive average growth rate of approximately 0.8% per week for the S&P. The analysis indicated that the probability of observing a change this large in the S&P’s rate of growth purely by chance is less than 3 in 100,000 (p = 0.000026).

The NASDAQ Composite Index rose 17.8% During the First 100 Days of the Scientific Demonstration Project The NASDAQ was decreasing on average 0.19% per week from January 3, 2000, through the week prior to the start of the Project. However, immediately following the beginning of the Project on July 23, 2006, there was a statistically significant shift to a positive average growth rate of approximately 1.36% per week for the NASDAQ. The analysis indicated that the probability of observing a change this large in the NASDAQ’s rate of growth purely by chance is approximately 2 in 1,000,000 (p = 0.0000023).

The Domini 400 Social Index rose 13.7% During the First 100 Days of the Scientific Demonstration Project The Domini 400 Social Index of socially responsible companies was decreasing at an average weekly rate of 0.016% from its inception on May 23, 2001, through the start of the Project. However, immediately following the beginning of the Project on July 23, 2006, there was a statistically significant shift to a positive average growth rate of approximately 0.93% per week for the Domini 400. The analysis indicated that the probability of observing a change this large in the Domini’s rate of growth purely by chance is approximately 2 in 1,000,000 (p = 0.0000019).

Consumer Sentiment Index rose 10.5% During the First 100 Days of the Scientific Demonstration Project The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index rose a total of 8.9 points (10.5%) for the first 3 full months of the Project (August – October). The average monthly increase was approximately 3.0 points, as compared to an average monthly change of 0.003 points for the pre-project period back to 1978. The impact of the Project was large and highly statistically significant: the probability of observing this result purely by chance is approximately 9 in 1,000 (p = 0.009).